Trading Expectancy Calculator
See how much you can expect to make or lose per trade from your win rate, average win and average loss.
What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy is the average amount a strategy makes per trade over a large number of trades. It combines how often you win with how much you win and lose, which is why it says more about a strategy than win rate alone.
Expectancy = (Win rate × Average win) − (Loss rate × Average loss)
With a 45% win rate, a $300 average win and a $150 average loss, expectancy is (0.45 × $300) − (0.55 × $150) = $52.50 per trade. Over 40 trades a month that is about $2,100 before any variance.
Breakeven win rate
Every reward-to-risk ratio has a minimum win rate needed to break even: 1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk). At 1:1 you need 50%, at 1:2 about 33% and at 1:3 just 25%. If your real win rate is above that line, your expectancy is positive.
Expectancy in R
Dividing by your average loss gives expectancy in R, which stays comparable as your account size changes. An expectancy of +0.25R means you make a quarter of your risk per trade on average.
Calculate it automatically
Clarity Tracking calculates expectancy from your synced trades, broken down by setup, instrument and session, so you can see exactly where your edge comes from.
