Enter the challenge rules and your trading stats to find a safe risk per trade and see your estimated pass rate.
Enter your challenge rules (profit target, daily loss limit, maximum loss, minimum trading days and time limit), then add your own trading stats: risk per trade, win rate, average reward in R and how many trades you take per day. The calculator turns the percentages into dollar limits, shows how many losses in a row you can take, and simulates 4,000 attempts to estimate how often a trader with your numbers would pass.
Most challenges aren't failed by a bad strategy. They're failed by too much risk. At 1% risk on a 10% maximum loss rule, you can take 10 losses in a row before failing. At 3% risk, just 4 losses end the challenge, and losing streaks of 4 or more are common even for profitable traders.
A useful rule of thumb: risk no more than one tenth of the maximum loss and one third of the daily loss per trade.
The estimate is only as good as your inputs. Use your real numbers from at least 50 to 100 recent trades, not your best week. If you don't know your win rate or average R, that's the first thing to fix, and it's exactly what a trading journal measures for you.
Firms define drawdown differently. Some measure it from your starting balance (static), others trail your highest balance or equity, which is stricter. Some also have consistency rules or news restrictions. Always read your firm's rules before you start, and treat this tool as a planning guide.